BLOG

In the Basque derby, a fixture that has always carried extra emotion, Athletic Bilbao host Deportivo Alavés at San Mamés. This clash is not only about regional pride, but also about major sporting objectives — the hosts are fighting for a UEFA Champions League place, while the visitors are battling to retain their La Liga status.

Athletic Bilbao – The San Mamés Fortress

• 59% home win rate this season places Bilbao among the league’s most effective home sides

• 14 consecutive home matches unbeaten, underlining San Mamés as one of the toughest stadiums in Spain

• 2.12 points per home match vs 0.88 points per away match for Alavés — a clear gap in efficiency

Additional key numbers:

• Athletic score an average of 1.82 goals per home match, while Alavés manage just 1.35 goals away

• Defensively, the hosts also hold the advantage — only 0.59 goals conceded per home game, compared to Alavés keeping a clean sheet in just 6% of their away matches

Deportivo Alavés – Struggles on the Road

• Just 18% away wins and an average of 1.76 goals conceded per away match highlight serious problems for coach Gaizka Garitano’s side

• In their last 17 matches against Athletic Bilbao, Alavés have won only 4 times, and they regularly struggle to create clear chances at San Mamés

Analytical Conclusions

Athletic Bilbao appear to be the clear favourites, not only because of their league position, but above all due to their exceptionally strong and consistent home form. Alavés may attempt a pragmatic approach, focusing on counter-attacks, but in their current form it is difficult to see them effectively neutralising the attacking strengths of Los Leones.

OUR PICK: Athletic Bilbao – Double Chance (Win or Draw)